One-Year Returns for Evans Capital Partners

+45%
Net return  ·  April 2025 – April 2026
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The Problem

Most active managers fail to beat the market.

The techniques are well understood. Data is available to everyone. The failure is not informational — it is behavioral. Two root causes explain most underperformance.

Behavioral Biases

Acting independently of the crowd is very difficult, in both up and down markets. Acting independently is essential to earn excess returns.

Forecasting Errors

Most investment approaches require predicting future earnings, growth rates, and competitive dynamics. These forecasts are genuinely difficult to get right, and the errors are exacerbated by behavioral biases.

Overcoming these biases requires a fundamental, disciplined, repeatable process.

The Answer

Anchor on what we can know today.

We strip forecasting out of the equation. We value businesses on two observable facts that exist today — the tangible assets they own and the earnings they have consistently generated through full economic cycles.

"Net assets pin the value of the company. Normalized earnings confirm it. Conviction is built when both anchors agree."

I
Tangible Book Value
The liquidation floor

We are buying real assets for less than their cost to build. Real assets — factories, inventory, receivables — after paying all liabilities. Excludes goodwill, brand value, and intangibles that evaporate in liquidation. That is a margin of safety that requires no forecast.

Target: Tangible BTM ≥ 1.5
II
Normalized Earnings
The going-concern value

We strip out peaks and troughs using ten-year average income — the Shiller CAPE logic applied stock by stock. This eliminates cyclical noise and accounting distortions, revealing the sustainable earnings power of the business as it actually operates.

Target: Normalized P/E ≤ 10
Conviction is built when both pillars agree.

The Investment Criteria

Seeking companies trading at less than half their intrinsic value.

Quantitative Entry Gate
Tangible Book-to-Market BTM ≥ 1.5×
Normalized P/E Ratio N-PE ≤ 10×
Additional Qualitative Filters
Reasonable leverage — less than 2 times tangible book
Good management, especially regarding capital allocation
Industries and firms that we can understand, and aren't at existential risk
These criteria target companies we estimate are trading at less than half of their intrinsic value.

Current Portfolio

Every holding passes both quantitative anchors.

Every stock in this portfolio was purchased at a material discount to its tangible book value and at a low P/E ratio. In contrast, the S&P 500 trades at many multiples of tangible book value and at a historically high P/E ratio — meaning investors are paying a high price for projected future profits. We pay a low price for what we can value now.

Company Tangible BTM Norm. P/E Market Cap Notes
AerCap 1.56× 7.0× $22.5B Aggressively repurchasing shares
Close Brothers Group 2.19× 8.4× £672m Lawsuits have been resolved
Consorcio ARA 2.98× 6.0× p$5.4B Profits accelerating
Gulf Marine Services 1.60× 8.0× £205m Operations disrupted
Navios Maritime 1.30× 7.3× $2.0B Accelerated stock repurchases
Onity Corp 1.60× 7.7× $394m Selling reverse mortgage business
S&P 500 0.18× 40.6× — GAAP book; Shiller CAPE

* As of April 25, 2026. Holdings subject to change. This is not investment advice or a solicitation.

A 33-Year Back-Test of the Methodology

We ran a 33-year back-test of the methodology to verify historical returns. For every year between 1991 and 2023, all stocks with a tangible book-to-market between 1.5 and 5 were selected, that also had a prior 10-year average net income to market ratio less than 10 (a Shiller CAPE < 10), and had a long-term debt to tangible book value less than 2. The average two-year returns were then tracked by market cap range.

33
Annual formation cohorts
1991 through 2023
462
Total firm-year
observations
2yr
Return measurement window
per cohort

Source: CRSP/Compustat Merged via WRDS. Benchmark: S&P 500 April-to-April price index. The backtest results presented are hypothetical and were constructed by applying the current investment criteria to historical data. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations — it does not reflect actual trading, transaction costs, market impact, or the effect of material economic conditions. Actual results will differ, potentially materially, from backtested results

33-Year Back-Test Findings

Market Beating Across All Cap Ranges.

+44.4%
ECP Screen · Weighted Mean 2-Year Return
+19.8%
S&P 500 · Average 2-Year Return
+24.6%
Average Excess Return
0
Confirmed Distress Exits
Across 462 Firm-Years
Two-Year Average Returns by Market Cap Range
These are two-year average returns across each annual selection for all stocks that meet the screen requirements.
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
54
20
$50M–$100M
44
20
$100M–$500M
41
20
$500M–$1B
38
20
$1B–$2B
28
20
Over $2B
Screen Return (%)
S&P 500 Average (%)

CRSP/Compustat Merged via WRDS. The backtest results presented are hypothetical and were constructed by applying the current investment criteria to historical data. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations — it does not reflect actual trading, transaction costs, market impact, or the effect of material economic conditions. Actual results will differ, potentially materially, from backtested results

Account Structure & Terms

Your account. Your securities.
Full transparency.

How It Works

  • Your own separately managed account
  • You retain full ownership
  • Evans Capital Partners has trading authority only
  • All accounts mirror the same portfolio
  • View positions and value in real-time
Terms at a Glance
Minimum Investment $250,000
Management Fee 1.0% / year
Performance Fee None
Liquidity At your discretion
Custodian Interactive Brokers
Reporting Quarterly + IBKR portal

We are selectively accepting new accounts.

We are seeking new investors that believe in and understand the approach.

Let's Schedule a Conversation

tevans@evans-capital.com  ·  (607) 319-1191  ·  www.evans-capital.com

Evans Capital Partners LLC is a registered investment adviser. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. All performance figures are unaudited.